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Front, tropical player brings rain chance to Texas

Hold on: our weather's about to take a sharp turn! The forecast calls for afternoon highs near 100 for possibly the final time this August, then a weak cold front from the north and a tropical disturbance from the south appear to converge with some much-needed rainfall for Texas. Unfortunately, for parts of the state, it looks like too much rain might fall in a very short period of time...the setup for flash flooding.  Be prepared!

The satellite/radar loop shows the impact of the upper-level wind flow from the north, which is bringing clouds and even a few showers south of DFW along the slow-moving cold front, which is near the I-20 corridor. While we do expect to see more clouds here at home especially late in the day, it's only a 20% rain chance for now. The front will gradually sag south during the next 24 hours, we believe, acting as the starting point for more showers & storms. Our rain chance is up to 30% after sunset then 40% for tomorrow. Plan on mostly cloudy skies tomorrow through Sunday, which means no chance of triple digits. Speaking of, yesterday's high of 100 at 3:47 p.m. in Metro Austin marked our 41st triple digit day of the year. Temps now:

Our secondary focus is the Gulf, where the regeneration of Tropical Storm Harvey could take place anytime now. NOAA calls it a 90% chance during the next 48 hours and a 100% chance during the next five days. The bulk of this morning's computer models show landfall occurring along the middle Texas coast on Friday evening. A couple of models suggest it'll go further north, which means a drier outcome for Austin, while others point to a landfall further south along the Lower Coast...which would potentially be the wetter scenario for Central Texas. For now, we're going to give it a 40% chance for showers & storms on Friday then a 50% chance Saturday. Here's what our in-house model predicts through Friday night:

And check this out: as of right now,  NOAA's putting the bullseye of 16"+ near Houston! But a lot could still change with this forecast depending on the growth and movement of the resurrected Harvey. Check back often for updates here and on the 7 Day Forecast, as well as on 'Weather on the 1s'.  Away from your TV?  Watch our live stream anytime, anywhere via our mobile app.

Heat index at this hour:

Today's forecast highs:

Keep cool!
--Chief Meteorologist Burton Fitzsimmons (@Burton_Spectrum)